Nobody quite expected 2025 to be a banner year financially for the higher education sector. But soon after President Donald Trump retook office, his administration introduced a host of new policy pain points that have stacked on top of existing challenges. The result has been more than a little bloodletting, with both large and small institutions slashing workforces and budgets.
Now, the country’s three major credit rating agencies are dusting off their crystal balls to forecast what 2026 holds in store for higher ed. For all three, the outlook is not great.
Fitch Ratings labeled its higher ed financial outlook for 2026 as “deteriorating” while Moody’s Ratings described an “increasingly difficult and shifting operating environment for colleges and universities.” Similarly, S&P Global Ratings said it expects“mounting operating pressures and uncertainty” ahead for the sector’s nonprofit institutions.
Analysts cited additional disruption and belt-tightening ahead in the new year, from predicted demographic declines to pressures on international enrollment to uncertainties about how Republicans' big spending bill passed this summer will impact demand for college.
Below are the various takes on higher ed in 2026 by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings:
