Enrollment and Retention

This fall, an Alabama initiative will begin offering interested high school students direct admissions to 16 of the state's four-year institutions and 23 of its community colleges based on their transcripts. 

Under the newly announced Alabama Direct Admission Initiative, high school seniors must upload their transcripts to an online portal to receive automatic admissions offers. The process will neither charge students application fees nor require them to upload additional materials like essays or recommendation letters.

States have increasingly turned to direct admissions as a way to reach out to students who may not have considered higher education or don't view themselves as college material.

The direct admissions portal is set to open to students on Aug. 26. To participate in the first round of offers, interested students must upload their transcripts by Sept. 23 to receive their acceptances by Oct. 6. 

The participating colleges are primarily public institutions, like Alabama State University, the University of Montevallo and the state's community colleges. The list also includes some historically Black institutions, such as Alabama A&M University and the private Tuskegee University. The University of Alabama, the state's flagship, and Auburn University are not participating.

Many participating colleges will include merit-based scholarships with their offers, according to the initiative's website.

"The goal is to make college more affordable from the start," it said.

Students will also have the opportunity to indicate interest in acceptance notifications from out-of-state institutions, per the website. Those offers would come later in October, it said.

In a Thursday statement, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey called the initiative "a smart, student-centered solution" that demonstrates the state's focus on educational opportunities and workforce readiness.

Alabama Possible, a nonprofit that’s focused on educational attainment and economic opportunity in the state, is leading the direct admissions initiative in partnership with the Alabama Department of Education and the state community college system. The student-college matching software, Appily Match, is a product of education company EAB. 

Chandra Scott, executive director of Alabama Possible, said Thursday that direct admissions supports the state's workforce and economic mobility goals.

“Direct admissions eliminates uncertainty and sends a clear message to Alabama students: you are college-ready and you belong,” Scott said in a statement.  

Nationwide, higher education officials may look to direct admissions to bolster enrollment amid a looming contraction of the K-12 student pipeline.

One of the earliest statewide direct admissions programs, started by Idaho in 2015, raised first-time undergraduate enrollment by a little over 8%, according to a 2022 study.

Since Idaho, several other states have pursued direct admissions programs to both boost college attendance among residents and increase enrollment at public institutions. 

One of Alabama's neighbors similarly invested in direct admissions this summer. Last month, Tennessee announced it would launch a direct admissions pilot this November, automatically offering college acceptance to students based on their academic records and their completion of the Tennessee Promise application. 

The Tennessee pilot, which includes students from a randomly selected pool of high schools, will also provide roughly half of the recipients with personalized financial aid information to see if that increases their chances of enrolling in college.

Last year, The Common Application expanded its direct admissions program to send automatic acceptance letters from 116 colleges to first-generation and low- and middle-income students.

And Utah launched a similar acceptance program last year, offering the state’s high school students guaranteed admissions to at least one of its public colleges. While direct admissions offers students college acceptances without an application, guaranteed admissions promises eligible students that they will be accepted if they apply.

International enrollment at U.S. colleges could drop by as much as 150,000 students this fall unless the federal government ramps up its issuing of visas this summer, according to recent projections from NAFSA: Association of International Educators. 

The financial consequences could be severe. A 30% to 40% decline in new foreign students would lead to a 15% overall drop in international enrollment and, with it, a potential loss of $7 billion in revenue for colleges and 60,000 higher education jobs, NAFSA estimated. 

The organization attributed the projected decline to various Trump administration actions, including travel bans and an earlier suspension of visa interviews. NAFSA called on Congress to direct the State Department to expedite processing for student visas. 

Preliminary data from early this year suggested “flat to modest growth” in international student enrollment, but NASFA pointed to policy changes that could alter the landscape ahead.

Since President Donald Trump retook office this year, many in the higher education world have worried international enrollment would decline in response to his policies and the perceptions abroad about America and how welcoming it will be to foreign students. 

His administration has indeed taken an aggressive stance on admitting students from outside the U.S. In June, Trump signed an executive order banning travel from 12 countries and imposing restrictions on seven others. And the president has recently considered bans on 36 more countries. 

Also in June, the State Department announced expanded screening that included surveillance of social media posts for applicants of F, M and J nonimmigrant visas. 

That followed an announcement in May from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the U.S. would move to “aggressively revoke” visas for Chinese students. Trump later appeared to walk back that stance on social media, adding more confusion as to the administration’s actual policy.

NAFSA pointed to reports of limited to no visa review appointments for prospective international students in India, China, Nigeria and Japan. The organization noted that India and China send the most international students to the U.S., while Nigeria and Japan are the seventh and 13th leading home countries, respectively. 

On top of those moves, the administration has demonstrated interest in using international student enrollment as leverage against institutions and activists in Trump’s crosshairs. 

Through various directives, for example,Trump and his government have tried to bar Harvard from enrolling international students in the administration’s ongoing feud with the university. Each of those efforts have been temporarily blocked in court. Had they not been, the consequences for Harvard would likely be dire. In the 2024-25 academic year, the Ivy League university’s roughly 6,800 foreign students made up 27.2% of its student body.  

Earlier this year, the administration also moved to deny visas for pro-Palestinian protestors. 

A July report from analysts with Moody’s ratings services pointed to the potential financial fallout for colleges from declines in international enrollment. They noted that foreign students tend to pay full tuition and fees, heightening the potential revenue impact. 

A stress test by the analysts found that for 130 colleges they rate, a 20% drop in international enrollment would translate into a 0.5 percentage-point hit to their earnings margin before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization. For 18 colleges, EBITDA margin loss would be 2 to 8 points. Those with already low margins could face “significant financial stress,” the analysts said.

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By ECSI

In the fall of 2024, National Student Clearinghouse reported a stark decline in higher education enrollment, causing panic about the future of the industry itself. Months later, a miscalculation was discovered that revealed the data to be inaccurate; rather than freshman enrollment decreasing by 5%, it actually increased by 5.5%. Several institutions realized that their original enrollment fears were unfounded. University of North Carolina Greensboro saw a 1.5% increase in Fall 2024 enrollment, Ohio University reported a 4.6% increase in total enrollment, and Roosevelt University saw a 9.6% increase in enrollment deposits. The “enrollment cliff” is still a concern – that dip isn’t expected until 2037, but not the immediate doomsday scenario we’ve previously been presented with.

There are challenges in managing enrollment and retention, however, just not limited to the threat of smaller generations. Though many young adults and nontraditional students are deciding to pursue a college degree, institutions are competing for these students’ business at a time when resources are incredibly limited. Research grants are being scrutinized or cut altogether, federal funding is at stake, and the staffing challenges that arose in 2020 during the pandemic still haven’t fully recovered. Institutions are being asked to offer a competitive educational experience, all without draining the resources they have or pushing their remaining staff to the brink.

It’s a tall order, but not an impossible one. When manpower is limited, technology can help fill the gap. Read on to see how technology can support your own enrollment and retention efforts to help you differentiate your university from the competition.

Assisting more students at scale

Many colleges and universities put dedicated effort into prospecting, but let up on support once students enter the enrollment process. Enrolling can be a formidable and confusing journey for new students. Even if institutions have resources available, students may not always know where to look, and opt for sending a chat or making a phone call. When staff get bogged down with too many phone calls or chats — often asking similar questions — it creates bottlenecks. Staff become overwhelmed, students get frustrated, and the queue of questions keeps growing.

Reimagine your enrollment processes to provide the support students need without more full-time team members. With a contact center and staff extension solutions, inbound calls and other administrative tasks are handled quickly. Students get the answers they need and simple questions are taken care of without any staff intervention. By addressing this stage of the student journey, you can streamline enrollment and greatly improve the experience for your staff and students.

Helping students persist amid financial challenges boosts retention

In a recent survey, more than 30% of students miss tuition deadlines each term. Past-due payments cause stress and are often a leading indicator of withdrawals. Even with robust student financial support tactics, some students fall behind financially, discontinue studies, and risk having their past-due balances sent to collection. Even if a student resolves their account, they could decide that the experience was so unsavory that they drop out or transfer to another college or university.

Set your institution apart by approaching past-due payments with compassion and care. With an accounts receivable management solution, you offer flexible payment plans that allow students to resolve accounts over time through payment methods that work best for them. This helps students stay enrolled by giving a path to bringing past-due balances into good standing. The result? Better student experience, better retention rates, and a new differentiator for your institution.

Support your staff, they support your students

The right partner can serve as a helpful supplement to your staff. Improving enrollment and retention is a very hands-on process, and if staff are too preoccupied with other tasks, they can miss out on opportunities to make a bigger impact. With a contact center and staff extension solutions, your internal staff can focus on strategic initiatives and provide deeper support during admissions and enrollment. Using an accounts receivable management solution outsources administrative work, ensuring that managing past due accounts doesn’t eat up the time of your internal staff.

When budgets are limited, it can seem counterintuitive to add new resources. Yet there is a cost associated with inaction. Staff become bogged down with clunky processes, morale worsens, and students receive less support. On the other hand, putting the right resources in the hands of people who can make a difference can transform an institution’s stagnant enrollment and retention, delivering a valuable return on investment. With scalable, hands-on assistance, staff can have more time in their day to focus on the work they’re passionate about: supporting students on their academic journeys. In short, the more support your staff receives, the more support students receive, and the more support your institution receives, it’s a win-win-win!

Conclusion

Higher education is remarkably resilient, and despite ongoing challenges, it remains a bedrock of modern society. To keep your institution strong, consider how technology could improve your processes. Solutions that provide compassionate past-due accounts receivable management, tuition payment plans, and outsourcing services could be the key to standing out against the competition and improving your enrollment and retention.

Tennessee is joining the ranks of states with direct admissions programs by launching a pilot this fall that will automatically offer certain high school students spots at the state’s two- and four-year colleges based on their academic records. 

The program, led by the Tennessee Higher Education Commission, will pair admissions offers with financial aid information for about half the high school students to test whether that boosts their chances of enrolling. 

In a statement July 23, THEC Executive Director Steven Gentile cast the initiative as a way to simplify the path to college. “For the first time in the nation, we are pairing direct admissions with personalized financial aid information, so students not only know where they’ve been accepted — they’ll also know how they can afford to go.”

The TN Direct Admissions pilot is to launch in November, when roughly 41,000 students from more than 230 randomly selected high schools in the state will receive letters listing which participating colleges have automatically accepted them. Around half of those students will also get information about available state and institutional financial aid tailored to them based on their GPA, test scores or other criteria. 

To participate, students will need to complete an application for the Tennessee Promise program by Nov. 1.

Researchers will use the information from the pilot to study how providing this information influences college-going behavior. 

They aim to find out whether high school students who receive both financial aid information and direct admissions bids are more likely to attend college than those who just get automatic admissions offers. They will also compare the data against that for students who don’t receive direct admissions letters at all. 

“Through this study, we will learn not only about the impact of direct admissions and financial aid on students’ college enrollment, but how students feel about their direct admission experience,” Trisha Ross Anderson, a Harvard University researcher working on the project, said in a Wednesday statement. 

The financial aid component — which THEC said in a Wednesday statement is the first of its kind for a direct admissions program — will inform students of their eligibility for institutional grants and scholarships, as well as for state programs such as the Tennessee Promise. That program covers remaining tuition and fees for students at state community or technical colleges after all other grant aid has been applied.  

Overall, 53 colleges are participating in the fall pilot. That includes all 13 of the state’s community colleges and its 23 technical colleges, as well as 17 public and private universities. 

Tennessee joins several other states that have recently launched direct admissions programs. Earlier this year, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed a bill into law to send high school and community college students direct admissions offers to the state’s universities depending on their academic performance. 

And last October, New York launched an effort to guarantee fall 2025 spots to at least one of its public universities for high school students graduating in the top 10% of their class. The nine initial participating colleges included the state’s two flagships, University at Buffalo and Stony Brook University.

Spring enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center brought promising news: The college student population rose 3.2% from the year before, an increase of 562,000 students. Though current enrollment still lags 0.9% behind spring 2020, the improvement brought it the closest it's ever been to pre-COVID numbers.

A closer look at the data shows which student populations grew the most and which regions of the country are on track to recovery from the pandemic-induced dips. Below, we dive deeper into some of the spring semester’s most notable enrollment trends.

Older student enrollment (slowly) on the mend

Year-over-year enrollment change by age

Spring undergraduate enrollment rose across all adult age groups, with the 18- to 20-year-old cohort seeing a third consecutive year of gains. These traditional-aged college students represent about 40% of undergraduates, though higher ed experts have warned that their numbers are likely to decline amid the impending demographic cliff. As a result, some colleges are increasingly looking to older learners as a way to supplement the weakening K-12 pipeline.

Undergraduate enrollment among students ages 25 to 29 has fluctuated significantly since the pandemic, as did enrollment across all ages. But this demographic has been the slowest to recover.

Their enrollment decreased by 5.3% in spring 2023 compared to the year prior. By spring 2024, the worst of their losses appeared to slow, though enrollment for 25- to 29-year-olds still declined by 0.3% annually.

This year showed the first signs of improvement. The number of undergraduate students in their late 20s increased by 5.9% year over year in what the clearinghouse called "the start of a recovery after consistent declines since the pandemic." With the spring 2025 gains, their enrollment still fell 12.6% lower than in spring 2020.

Similarly, students ages 21 to 24 saw their first post-2020 enrollment increase this spring. However, like their slightly older counterparts, they still lag by 6.6% compared to at the start of the pandemic.

Every region in the U.S. makes enrollment gains

Fall 2025 enrollment change year over year by state

All regions of the U.S. and a vast majority of states saw their total college enrollment grow in spring 2025, the clearinghouse found. Enrollment in the South, which rose by 4% over the previous year and outpaced all other U.S. regions, coincided with its states' public colleges reporting enrollment growth despite a challenging landscape.

Georgia, for example, enrolled 5.3% more students in spring 2025 than it had the previous year, according to the clearinghouse. At the same time, the state's public university system reported a 6% annual hike in total enrollment that term, following a similar 5.9% boost in fall 2024. 

In North Carolina, the news that total spring enrollment grew 4.7% followed institutional data from fall 2024 — the most recent available — showing the state's community college system increased enrollment by 3.6% and its public four-year institutions grew by 2.2%.

The West experienced a 2.8% year-over-year enrollment growth, while the Midwest reported a 2.6% gain. Colleges in the Northeast also saw a 2% bump — continuing improvements seen in the incredibly dense, competitive market for the first time last year.

Just six states saw enrollment decreases — Idaho, Alaska, Vermont, Oregon, Nebraska and Missouri.

An increasingly diverse student mix

Fall 2025 enrollment growth by race and ethnicity

Spring 2025 brought undergraduate enrollment gains across ethnicity and racial demographics tracked by the clearinghouse. Black students showed the biggest increase, 10.3%, after years of lagging behind most other groups. Undergraduate enrollment among multiracial students likewise expanded by 8.5% year over year.

Enrollment among White students rose by a much smaller percentage, 1.8%, nonetheless signifying the first upturn the group has seen since the start of the pandemic.

The news comes amid increased attention to diversity among students and the means by which colleges foster it. Fall 2024 marked the start of the first cohort of freshmen admitted since the U.S. Supreme Court barred race-conscious admissions practices. The minority of colleges that the ruling affected — those that maintain selective admissions processes — reported mixed outcomes on their class diversity, with Black students representing the biggest loss among racial groups.

Since then, however, conservative policymakers have ratcheted up attacks on diversity efforts at colleges at both the federal and state levels, seeking to make them illegal at publicly funded institutions. The eradication of these programs — and the student support systems they created — has some higher education experts warning of more barriers to college and an increasing potential for attrition among students of color.

Among first-year students enrolled in fall 2023, 86.4% returned to college in the spring for their second semester, which marks the second-highest persistence rate since 2015, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 

Retention rates hit their highest level since 2015 — the first year covered by the study — with 83.7% of students returning to the same institution for their second semester. Another 2.6% transferred to another institution, while 13.6% didn’t return for the spring. 

At 77.6%, persistence into the second fall semester also hit its highest level in the past nine years, according to the research center.

As the number of high school graduates enters a long-anticipated decline, retention and persistence will likely take on heightened importance as colleges work to keep the students they have to maintain enrollment and revenue stability.

Amid demographic shifts, students’ shorter-term persistence and retention rates may take greater significance. Shapiro noted that, “We’ve been focused on second fall persistence for years, but that’s too long to wait for many institutions, who seek earlier indicators of student success.”

National Student Clearinghouse’s latest study tracks new students’ fall-to-spring persistence for the first time. The group’s data shows progress overall both in short and longer-term persistence among college students, as well as retention. However, the overall numbers mask disparities among student groups. 

“Today’s report helps schools focus on supporting students who are at risk sooner,” Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, said in a statement. “This is especially important for part-time students, older students and those who start at community colleges, where first spring persistence rates are lower.”

Part-time students in particular face a “substantial disadvantage,” the research center noted. Only 67.4% of part-time students who first enrolled in fall 2023 returned for the spring semester, compared to 92.1% of full-time students.

A wide gap in persistence exists between older and younger students as well. In fall-to-spring persistence, the gap was a little over 28 percentage points, with 89.7% of the students 20-years-old and younger returning for their second semester compared with 61.4% of students 25 and over. Those 20 years old or younger returned the following fall at a rate of 82% — nearly 37 percentage points higher than for those who were 25 or older.

There were also disparities by race. Hispanic, Black, multiracial, Native American, and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander students had lower persistence rates than White and Asian students.

College enrollment rose 3.2% year over year in spring 2025, increasing by 562,000 students and inching closer to pre-pandemic levels, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 

Total enrollment reached 18.4 million students. Undergraduate enrollment increased 3.5% to 15.3 million, while graduate enrollment rose 1.5% to 3.1 million. 

Community colleges again drove much of the growth in the sector, with a 5.4% increase in undergraduate enrollment at public two-year institutions. Among community colleges focused on vocations, enrollment rose 11.7%, a gain of about 91,000 students.

Colleges are continuing to make up ground lost during the pandemic, according to the clearinghouse’s latest report. While undergraduate enrollment this spring remained 2.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels, graduate enrollment grew 7.2% higher than in 2020. Spring enrollment at trade-focused colleges was up a whopping 20% since 2020, an increase of 871,000 students.

Historically Black colleges and universities saw their highest upticks since the pandemic, with year-over-year growth of 4.6% for undergraduates and 7.7% for graduate students, according to the clearinghouse.

Undergraduate enrollment grew among students in their 20s for the first time since the pandemic, with headcounts up 3.2% among students aged 21 to 24 and 5.9% for students aged 25 to 29. 

Every kind of higher ed institution saw enrollment growth this semester, with community colleges taking center stage. 

Public two-year institutions accounted for a little over half of the sector's undergraduate growth in spring 2024 while making up slightly more than a third of the total undergraduate population, Doug Shapiro, executive director of the clearinghouse's research center, noted during a media briefing Wednesday. However, community college enrollment is still “well below pre-pandemic numbers,” he noted. 

At about 4.7 million students, public two-year college enrollment this spring is still nearly 350,000 students under its 2020 high, according to the clearinghouse report. 

Along with two-year program enrollment increases, community colleges drove 4.8% enrollment growth in undergraduate certificate programs. 

“Students are voting with their feet in favor of shorter-term credentials at lower costs and with more direct job-related skills,” Shapiro said.

Four-year institutions also made progress this spring. Total spring enrollment was up 2.5% in public four-year colleges — compared to 1.7% growth in spring 2024. And private four-year nonprofits saw headcounts rise 1.4% — a slight deceleration from last spring’s 1.7% growth but still another mark of progress since the pandemic-era declines. 

Most states in the U.S. experienced enrollment growth, with a handful of exceptions: Enrollment dropped 6.2% in Idaho, 3% in Alaska, 2% in Vermont, 1.6% in Oregon, 1% in Nebraska and 0.7% in Missouri. 

The clearinghouse prefaced that the decline in Idaho, the biggest drop seen among the states, was largely driven by one college's decision to stop reporting dual enrollment numbers, which include high school students taking college classes. 

Earlier this year, the clearinghouse found that fall 2024 enrollment grew 4.5%, with first-year student headcounts rising 5.5% annually. 

“College student attendance patterns this spring compared to spring 2024 are reinforcing and building on the growth that we saw in the fall,” Shapiro said Wednesday.

Sonoma State University is undertaking a turnaround plan meant to firm up the public institution’s financial sustainability amid a larger-than-expected budget deficit. 

The plan, unveiled April 7, calls for boosting enrollment, bringing down costs and creating new programs and career pathways for students, among other measures.

Sonoma State’s announced initiatives come as the California State University system and the University of California system contend with state cuts and federal funding chaos that have hit budgets, forcing hiring freezes and potential cuts down the road.

In January, Sonoma State announced a slew of forthcoming cuts at the university, including the elimination of 12 staff positions and four management roles, along with the decision not to renew 46 faculty contracts. 

On top of that, the institution said it would wind down about two dozen academic programs and cut its entire NCAA Division II athletic department. Many of those moves have led to public outcry by students, faculty and other stakeholders. They were precipitated by a $24 million deficit for the 2025-26 year, driven largely by enrollment declines and cost increases over recent years.

In the nine page turnaround plan outline released this week, the university said, “Our recent budget decisions now need to become investment decisions.”

It added, “Those investments are going to help recruit students, retain them, prepare them for careers, connect them to on-campus and regional employment and business opportunities, and keep them in the North Bay to reduce the region’s ‘brain drain’ and create a ‘brain gain.’”

The tension between Sonoma State’s cuts and investments reflect a balancing act many colleges are attempting to execute, as falling enrollments create budget pressures. But institutions, especially tuition-dependent ones, still need to attract and retain new students to survive and thrive.

Sonoma State's turnaround plan aims to raise enrollment by 20% in five to seven years, to the equivalent of 6,800 full-time students. 

It aims to do that by improving its marketing, bringing artificial intelligence and predictive analytics to its recruitment process, and expanding direct admissions and dual-credit programs with local high schools as well as concurrent enrollment with community colleges. 

At the same time, officials acknowledged “a reality” in demographic declines affecting the Bay Area that will likely mean fewer traditional-aged college students. California is expected to see one of the biggest declines in the country, with high school graduates projected to fall 29% between 2023 and 2041, according to the latest estimates from Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. 

In that competitive recruiting environment, Sonoma State also hopes to attract students by adding at least four new “high-demand” academic offerings in three years, while also trying to drum up demand in existing majors and degrees. The university said it will focus on ramping up approval for and hiring in program areas such as health sciences, data science and robotics. 

Across 60% of its majors, Sonoma State wants to build out what it calls “structured” career pathways and internships by partnering with local employers. It aims to have at least 500 students participating in each major in five years.

Along with all the added activity, the university aims to cut its cost of attendance. It pointed out that Sonoma State’s per-student costs are 33% higher than the California State average — a metric it aims to reverse. Over time, the university plans to bring those costs down in part by partnering with its California State system peers in the region to reduce administrative overhead.

This is a moment for higher education 18 years in the making.  

By the latest estimates, 2025 will be the year that the number of high school graduates peak. The long-dreaded demographic cliff — caused by declining birth rates starting in 2007 — is coming. 

But the coming decline in traditional-aged college students might not be a “cliff,” exactly, and it doesn’t necessarily spell a disaster for the nation’s colleges.

In its latest forecasts of future high school graduate numbers, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education described a more gradual drop over the next 15 years than the cliff metaphor suggests, though it also projected a slightly larger decline overall than previously expected. 

“The decline is coming,” Patrick Lane, report co-author and WICHE’s vice president of policy analysis and research, said during a February panel at an American Council on Education event in Washington, D.C. “Whether it looks like a cliff or sort of a slowly sliding downward trend … that’s the really big question.”

A more gradual decline would give institutions and policymakers time to prepare and manage the change. After all, diminished numbers of high school graduates don't necessarily have to translate into fewer college students — though they probably will for certain institutions. The college-going rate, along with college student body makeup and retention, all play a role in mitigation strategies amid the decline. 

However colleges and policymakers respond, it’s time for them to get ready. As Lane emphasized, the decline will be real — and it's nearly here. 

“The reason that we're pretty confident about this is because you can't create 18-year-olds out of nothing,” he said. “There just aren't the bodies anymore.” 

Fewer students, more closures

Demographic shifts have already caused financial pain for many institutions, with some states already seeing their ranks shrink. In the Northeast — home to many of the country’s private liberal arts institutions — high school graduate numbers fell from 637,000 in 2012 to 612,000 in 2024, a drop approaching 4%. 

When Wells College in New York and Goddard College in Vermont shuttered last year, both cited demographic challenges. 

Those and other recent college closures highlight the challenge in adapting to the sector’s changes. 

Such closures “may represent institutions that didn't act strongly enough soon enough, or else they were just overwhelmed by forces that were bigger than were possible to overcome,” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College and author of “Demographics and The Demand for Higher Education.” 

But as populations of traditional-aged college students shrink more broadly and deeply, the pace of closures could accelerate. 

A study released in December used machine learning techniques to forecast changes in college closure rates tied to the demographic cliff. The model, developed by researchers with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predicts that up to 80 additional colleges could close with an abrupt 15% decline in enrollment (from a 2019 baseline, chosen to avoid COVID disruptions) over the 2025-29 period.

That would effectively more than double the current average annual closure rate of institutions. While this represents a worst-case scenario, even gentler declines could still wreak havoc on some institutions. The researchers found a more gradual enrollment decrease happening over five years would lead to an 8.1% increase in annual college closures, or about five additional institutions per year. 

An institution’s size and stature could determine how it weathers coming population changes.

“Especially full-time traditional-age students are looking to go to the bigger-name universities if they can, which is further stressing some of the smaller colleges that are already facing enrollment declines,” said Robert Kelchen, a visiting scholar at the Philadelphia Fed’s Consumer Finance Institute and one of the paper’s authors. 

Location also matters. 

WICHE’s projection of peaking high school graduates — at around 3.8 million this year — represents a national average. But outcomes by state vary widely, with some actually forecasted to see increases rather than decreases.  

Meanwhile, some locations and regions will experience steeper-than-average declines. Between 2023 and 2041, WICHE researchers estimate, graduates will drop 27% in New York and 32% in Illinois, for example. By contrast, are projected to grow by double digits in some states, including Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida. 

Many struggling colleges “are in the Northeast and Midwest, which are on the higher side in terms of expected enrollment declines,” said Kelchen, an educational leadership and policy studies professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. That means those institutions are likely more vulnerable.  

‘Going on offense’ to raise attendance rates

Not every high school graduate chooses to attend college. And in recent years, a smaller proportion have done so. Between 2016 and 2022, the college-going rate fell about 8 percentage points to 62%.

Raising that rate could significantly help offset enrollment losses. WICHE found that increasing the college-going rate by just 0.5% per year would more than offset the enrollment shortfalls from demographic shifts. But increasing college attendance rate is no simple or easy task — nor is it entirely in anyone’s control.  

Much depends on the economy and job market. 

Wage growth over the past decade could help explain lower attendance rates. “This is what it looks like to reduce inequality, but it does mean that students who are on the bubble between the job market and higher ed are more likely to choose the job market until that trend reverses,” Grawe said.

Increasing skepticism about the value of college education also likely plays a role. Kelchen pointed to a “perception that college is unaffordable.” 

In fact, net tuition and fees have declined over the past decade at both public and private institutions, studies have shown. 

“That's different than the previous four decades, but that perception is there,” he added. “Students have some pretty inexpensive options, especially with the growth of free community college programs. But those aren't going to save some of these small private colleges that are struggling to compete on price.” 

And while college’s net price increases have slowed — attendance still comes with a heavy price tag for many.

“College costs too much. It takes too long,” said Chuck Ambrose, a senior education consultant with law firm Husch Blackwell who has served as chief executive at several colleges. “At the end of the day, you've got to borrow to pay, which leverages all that potential over a longer span” before benefits are realized.

So, not only does the economy affect college attendance — college attendance affects the entire economy. 

“It's our game to lose because the kind of demand that we're going to continue to see on the need for postsecondary [skills] is going to be quite high,” Jeff Strohl, a professor and director of Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, said during the ACE panel.

The higher education sector “really needs to go on the offense,” he said, focusing on skills graduates need in the job market and recognizing that “education is, in fact, putting together packets of skills that match with occupations and packages of need, while not losing our commitment to general education.” 

‘If we just kept the students we have, we'd be healthy’

The idea that demographic decline will usher in an “apocalypse” for higher ed institutions is an “unhelpful” notion, Grawe said at the ACE event. 

“If it’s an ‘apocalypse,’ we go home and we throw in the towel,” he said. 

Difficult as adjusting may be, institutions have some agency, experts have made clear. But that adjustment will likely require investments in services and infrastructure — and breaking old institutional habits. 

“It's really important that you be realistic,” Grawe said in an interview. “If you say, ‘Well, we're going to just recruit our way out of this mess,’ but then you don't recruit your way out of this mess — now you have really, really large budget shortfalls.”

It's also important to remember that the pool of potential students is larger than just the annual waves of high school graduates. For one, there’s all the students currently enrolled in college — many of whom, statistically, won’t stick around to graduate. By the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s latest count, the national completion rate stood at 61.1% for students who entered college in fall 2018.

WICHE’s thought experiment with improving college-going rates could also be conducted looking at retention rates, Lane said in a December interview, adding that retention is “absolutely part of the puzzle” of managing the demographic decline. 

Better retention could have a large, positive impact financially for many colleges in the face of a shrinking pipeline for new students. 

“If we just kept the students we have, we'd be healthy,” Ambrose said of the sector. “Students hire us to do three jobs. Recruit them, keep them and make sure their experience is of value.”

But like the college-going rate, if improving retention were easy, it would be done. “There's no telling how many billions of dollars we spent on interventions and staff and analytics and all kinds of tools,” Ambrose said.

With retention broadly, it could take a kitchen-sink approach to succeed. Ambrose listed a host of strategies that can help colleges retain their students, including expanding campus work, internship and apprenticeship programs; incentivizing completion, such as through scholarships; and providing personalized, comprehensive student support.

Put simply, boosting retention rates requires investment. In an interview, Grawe pointed to City University of New York’s ASAP program for students seeking associate degrees. (CUNY has a similar program for bachelor’s students).

ASAP provides financial assistance for tuition, transportation and textbooks on top of intensive counseling and what Grawe described as “supports that may speak to a sense of belonging.”

CUNY has found the graduation rate for ASAP participants to be 53%, more than double historical rates. 

“They've had tremendous, tremendous success, more or less doubling the share of students who are completing their associate's degrees,” Grawe said. “Now the downside is that program is wraparound, which means it’s very expensive. But if you look at it on a per-degree basis, it doesn't look nearly so expensive.”

Not every effort needs a wealth of funds or to be as comprehensive to make a difference, though. 

Grawe also pointed to the University of Southern Maine, which last year showed some of the most dramatic improvement in its student retention rate across the University of Maine System, at 77.3%, up from a low of 70% four years prior. The institution turned retention around “by focusing just on just basic nuts and bolts of student advising,” Grawe said. 

UMS as a whole hit a record student return rate last fall. The system credited the rise in part to “intrusive advising.” That includes such things as sending text alerts to students who miss classes or fall behind on their assignments. The messages then invite them in for advising or counseling appointments. 

Equity as an ‘imperative’

Equity and inclusion also play an ever more important role in retention. Future student bodies are projected to become more diverse, with WICHE forecasting rises in Hispanic and multiracial students. 

College was “meant to be for privilege,” Ambrose said. “If you put the supports in place that reverse these trends, you know we call it? Equity.”

He also noted, “The impact of dismantling DEI also dismantles our greatest potential to survive.”

Strohl echoed that point during the ACE panel, which occurred against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s all-out attack on higher ed diversity, equity and inclusion programs. 

“We've been afraid of, or we've been made afraid of, the word ‘equity,’” Strohl said. “Right now, equity is going to be an economic imperative for the healthy growth of this country, and we need to figure out how to get all hands on board as we move forward.” 

He went on to explain that educational institutions must find ways of “picking up the people who have been left behind” — including both racial minority groups and low-income White people — to meet the skills gap.

Pivoting to adult students: ‘A years-long process’

Nontraditional student recruitment is another possibility with promise, but, as with boosting retention, it requires investment as well as major cultural and operational changes in the higher ed world.  

In Ambrose’s view, college historically was a “four-year holding tank to assimilate young people into the workforce.”

“Our campuses, infrastructure, facilities, schedules and intended outcomes are still designed to serve 17-to-24-year-olds,” he noted.

Reaching older students is not easy, nor is there a straightforward playbook for how to do it. “You cannot become an adult-serving institution overnight,” Lane said at the ACE event. “This is a yearslong process.”

Knowing what works to attract and retain adult learners is an understudied topic — making it all the more difficult to act on. 

“We don't really know what works, because we don't really have great data,” Lane said. “We don’t know, at the intervention level," what improves credit-earning, retention, and college completion for adults, he said.

Grawe echoed that caveat during the panel. “I hear too many institutions who respond to declining traditional-age students by saying, ‘Well, we'll just shift toward adults’ — as if it's a light switch.”

Pivoting to attract more nontraditional students means “fundamentally rethinking how we do almost everything,” Grawe added.

“We need to think about what it means to attend college with kids. What does it mean to attend college with jobs? Those are very, very different learning environments,” he said. “And so to simply say, ‘We will go out and tell adults, ‘Well, now you are welcome here too, and they will of course want to hang out with us,’ I think is very misguided.”

Nearly 1.2 million college students transferred to new institutions in fall 2024, marking a 4.4% increase in transfers compared to the same period in 2023, according to research released March 5 by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Transfer students represented 13% of all non-first-year students in fall 2024. Their expanding ranks outpaced reenrollment at the same institution, which grew 2.6% year over year. 

Compared to fall 2020, transfers rose 7.9% in fall 2024, while nontransfer student numbers fell 3.5% below levels seen four years prior, the clearinghouse found. 

Transfers grew annually last fall across all different pathways: from two-year institutions to four-year institutions, laterally from one two-year institution or four-year institution to another, and from four-year institutions to two-year, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 

Within the two-year to four-year college pathway, the study found 5.5% growth in the number of students transferring from community colleges to the most selective four-year institutions, Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research center, said at a media briefing March 4. 

The rate was even higher, 7%, among community college students from lower-income backgrounds. While the growth rate was significant, the number of students in that category represent a relatively small share of transfer students overall, Shapiro noted.

Transfers increased across every racial or ethnic group except White students. They were highest among Black students, at 8.3%, followed by Hispanic students, at 4.4%, according to the report. 

Since 2020, transfer enrollment grew the most at community colleges, increasing 13.5%. That represents over 46,500 students, which has helped but not wholly offset declines in community college enrollment following the pandemic. 

The study also found that a majority of transfer students, 52%, had returned to college after stopping out. That rate is up nearly 3 percentage points since 2020. 

"The growth in transfers this fall is a further indication that students are adjusting postsecondary goals in response to changing education and labor market conditions," Shapiro said in a statement. “That’s good news, especially for those who are able to return from stopouts by finding colleges that better meet their needs.”

Transferring students very often changed their topic of study. Among students whose major data was available, nearly two-thirds changed their majors after transferring.

Since 1979, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education has studied demographic trends and projected the number and makeup of future high school graduates and possible cohorts of college enrollees.

Estimating future numbers of high school graduates is an important exercise. Projections are just that, and their certainty declines with how far into the future one looks. But prognostication can help policymakers and college leaders with resource management. Administrators also need a sense of the cultural and geographic makeup of their potential college student bodies to better serve them. 

WICHE released its latest edition of “Knocking at the College Door” in December. In it, the report’s authors predicted that this year will represent a peak in high school graduates. After 2025 comes a long-anticipated decline. 

WICHE looked closely at how high school graduate numbers and makeup will vary over the coming years. Here is a deeper look at some of the data and forecasts that examine changes to the pipeline of traditional-age college students.

High school graduates in decline

The headline number in WICHE’s report is that researchers expect the total number of high school graduates in the U.S. to peak this year at between 3.8 million and 3.9 million. 

After 2025, they expect the population to decline at varying rates of speed through the next decade and a half. 

When 2030 comes, the number of high school graduates is forecast to be 3.1% lower than 2023 levels. By 2041, the report authors anticipate about 3.4 million high school graduates, or about 10.5% fewer than in 2023 and 13% fewer than expected this year. 

The WICHE projections are calculated from data on births, grade 1-12 enrollment, and each state’s graduates. 

Described by the report authors as “broad and substantial,” the estimated decline in graduates largely depends on past years’ births, how quickly students progress through high school and earn diplomas, as well as migration and mortality patterns. 

The authors reference the often-invoked concept of a demographic cliff, pointing out that it might overdramatize the changes to come. 

“While the cliff metaphor is useful to illustrate the impending demographic shift for policymakers, the reality will be a slower and steadier decline, which has important implications for institutions of higher education, workforce training systems, and state and federal policymakers.”

The authors conclude that policymakers and higher education leaders have time to adapt — while warning that “future demographics do not call for a one-time adjustment, but rather a new and sustained approach to serving students.” 

State by state graduate decreases — and increases

One big asterisk to the decline in high school graduates: It won’t happen everywhere or at the same speed.

Across the U.S., 38 states are expected to experience declines — while 12 states and Washington, D.C., will actually see increases. 

High school graduate populations will rise by double digits in some states, including South Carolina, Tennessee, Idaho and North Dakota, according to WICHE estimates. In Washington, D.C., they’re projected to jump a whopping 31%. 

Among regions, the only increase is expected in the South, already home to the largest number of high school graduates. By 2037, the ranks of high school graduates in the region will rise by 3% to about 1.5 million over 2024.

Those projections for the South are slightly higher than WICHE estimated in 2020, which could be a result of population migration to Southern states, Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president of policy analysis and research, and one of the report’s authors, said at a December media briefing. But, he noted, the researchers couldn’t say so definitively. 

And there again, even the regional average in the South belies differences among the states. High school graduate numbers are projected to fall 16% in Mississippi and 26% in West Virginia, for example. 

The picture is much starker in the country’s other three major regions. High school graduate headcount is expected to decline 17% in the Northeast, 16% in the Midwest and 20% in the West. 

All of those numbers are based largely on birth rates and demographic changes, Lane noted. Some states can have declining graduate populations even as the share of high school students who finish their diplomas increase, he said.

The takeaway is that policy responses and institutional adaptation will need to be regionally focused to be effective. The WICHE authors tied the impact of graduate declines ultimately to workforce challenges occurring across the nation. 

“When we look around our region, and more broadly around the country, we see workforce shortages in virtually any important employment sector that you can think of, from healthcare, teaching, nursing, engineering to things that may not be as high on people's radar,” Lane said.

He added, “If these declining high school graduate numbers translate into even more downward pressure on enrollments, it'll be hard to meet some of these workforce demands.”

Where high school graduates come from

States themselves contain cities, suburbs, towns and rural areas. As such, it's worth noting the areas within their states from which high school graduates hail. 

Suburbs are home to the largest share of 12th grade students, and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon. In the 2022-23 academic year, 43% of 12th grade enrollment came from suburbs. The WICHE report projects that share will increase to 45% by 2033-34, amounting to 32,450 more 12th grade students from the suburbs.

Meanwhile, rural areas will slightly increase their share of 12th graders, from 15% to 16%, while cities’ share will drop from 31% to 29%, per WICHE’s projections. Towns’ share is expected to stay flat at 11%.

Shifting ethnic and racial backgrounds

Future cohorts of high school graduates will vary by their ethnic and racial makeup as well. 

The WICHE paper projects that the number of White, Black, and American Indian and Alaska Native public high school graduates will all decline between 2023 and 2041. 

Hispanic graduates are expected to increase steadily from 2023 levels through the next decade and a half, with their numbers growing 16% by 2041.

By far the largest increases will be in multiracial high school graduates, with that group’s ranks projected to nearly double from 2023 levels by 2034.

The increase in underrepresented graduates continues a trend seen since WICHE started issuing projections in the late 1990s, the authors noted.

“While this depicts only one aspect of this changing student landscape, it is a very important part of the overall demographic story facing K-12 and post-secondary education,” WICHE President Demarée Michelau said at the December briefing.

‘Demography need not be destiny’

Demographics and graduate numbers don't tell the whole story. Factors beyond the sheer numbers of high school graduates also determine college enrollment, which in turn has an enormous impact on the financial health and sustainability of the country’s higher education institutions.

Among other factors, the college-going rate plays a major role. The WICHE authors highlighted this in performing a sort of back-of-the-envelope calculation examining what happens when rates of attendance increase. 

The college-going rate has declined significantly over the past decade. Since 2016, the rate has fallen fairly steadily from 70% to 62% in 2022.

The health of the economy plays a strong role in that rate — with college attendance rising in downturns. Perceptions about cost and value can also be a factor, Lane noted in an interview.

Although an admittedly rough calculation, the WICHE report authors found that a mere 0.5% uptick in the college-going rate applied to their projections of high school graduates would actually lead to higher college enrollments in 2041 as compared to 2024. 

In other words, a 0.5% increase in college attendance rates would offset the entire forecasted downshift. 

The authors themselves describe this as a “purely hypothetical and perhaps overly optimistic scenario,” but it still shows the large impact that raising the college-rate could have on college enrollments. 

“Any approach to managing the expected decline in the number of graduates must involve improving the immediate college-going rate of high school graduates and improving the progression and retention of students who do enter college,” the authors wrote.

Or, as Michelau put it in the report’s introduction: “Demography need not be destiny. There are proven approaches to increasing student access and success, especially for those whom higher education has not historically served well.”