Undergraduate enrollment in spring 2023 slipped just 0.2% from the previous year, representing a loss of some 25,000 students, according to a report released May 24 by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 

While this is an improvement over the 3.9% decline the previous spring, undergraduate enrollment remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Community colleges saw a 0.5% uptick in enrollment, of roughly 22,000 students. The growth, which comes after significant declines in the last two years, stemmed from younger enrollees, such as those in dual-enrollment high school programs.

Across higher education, enrollment in spring 2023 dropped by 0.5% year over year, according to the report. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center categorizes the relatively small loss as a sign of the sector stabilizing. 

In spring 2022, higher ed enrollment dropped 3.1% from the previous year and spring 2021 had seen a 2.4% decline.

Graduate enrollment losses helped fuel this spring’s decrease, erasing some of the gains they had made during the pandemic. Enrollment in those programs declined 2.2%, or about 68,000 students. A vast majority of the losses, about 57,000 students, came from master's programs. 

Even with the damage slowing overall, sector-wide enrollment is still significantly below pre-COVID levels, down about 1.1 million students from spring 2020. The undergraduate sector alone lost nearly 1.2 million students since the pandemic began, and graduate enrollment is up by just over 76,000 students.

But COVID isn't keeping students away from classrooms these days, according to Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director.

"Students seem to be more concerned about the costs of college — particularly four-year colleges — and concerned about the debt that might be required to pay for that," he said on a call with reporters May 23.

Undergraduate enrollment at four-year public colleges fell 0.5%, while four-year private institutions lost 0.2%. That's a respective decline of about 28,500 and 5,000 students.

A small bump in community college enrollment helped balance undergraduate enrollment, according to the report. The 0.5% increase in community college's spring 2023 enrollment represents a huge improvement to the significant losses the sector faced in recent years. In spring 2022, public two-year colleges lost 8.2% of their student bodies, and spring 2021 saw a decline of 10.1%.

Community colleges’ boost this spring came from students 24 and younger. These institutions saw an 8% increase in dual-enrollment students — high schoolers who concurrently take college courses — representing a gain of 49,000 students. The sector also saw a 1.1% increase in traditional-aged college students, those ages 18 to 24.

Among undergraduates, students likely are seeking out quicker credentials in fields that could offer a straightforward path to a job, Shapiro said.

"Students are increasingly looking towards programs and majors that they can easily see a direct link to to the workforce," he said.

 Enrollment in sub-baccalaureate credentials rose 4.8%, or by 104,000 students. Associate degrees saw a 0.4% enrollment loss, or 15,000 students. Meanwhile, bachelor’s degree program enrollment fell 1.4%, or 114,000 students.  

While nearly three-quarters of the high school class of 2023 aspired to attend college, a lesser share, two-thirds, actually expected to enroll, according to a new survey from nonprofit YouthTruth.

These gaps worsened for certain groups — 58% of American Indian, Alaska Native, or Indigenous students, for instance, wanted to pursue a college education, but only 44% said they think they’ll attend. 

YouthTruth’s survey also revealed fewer students said they expected to go to community college compared to findings four years ago. One-quarter of the high school class of 2019 had said they anticipated enrolling in a community college versus 20% of the 2023 class.

Enrollment issues have occupied the minds of many higher education leaders, particularly as the pool of traditional college students — high school graduates — dwindles in some regions.

The COVID-19 emergency exacerbated concerns over losing students, as undergraduate enrollment plummeted, particularly at community colleges, and is just now starting to see hints of recovery.

At the same time, enrollment officials fear the effects on some of the most marginalized students from a much-anticipated U.S. Supreme Court ruling that’s expected to curtail race-conscious admissions. That decision is expected around summertime.

While a decision against race-conscious practices would only impact a small slice of institutions in practical terms, as most accept a majority of applicants, college officials worry what sort of message the ruling would send to students in racial and ethnic minority groups. 

YouthTruth’s survey shows the extent of some of these gaps in admissions expectations — 68% of Native Hawiian or Pacific Islander students wanted to attend college, for instance, but only 58% actually expected to. And 73% of Hispanic or Latino students sought to enroll, but just 64% believed they would. 

The two racial groups with the smallest gaps were White students — with 74% saying they wanted to enroll in college, and only 67% saying they anticipated they would — and Asian or Asian American students, where 90% wanted to attend college and 85% said they expected to. 

Higher shares of Asian or Asian American and White students also anticipated attending four-year college, at 70% of Asian and Asian American students, and just over half of White students. That compared to only 34% of Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander students and 27% of American Indian, Alaska Native or Indigenous students who said they believed they would go to a four-year college.

Gender differences also emerged in the survey results. More women aspired to attend college than men, 83% compared to 68%. And 77% of women said they expected to actually enroll,  versus only 57% of men. 

Also, 72% of nonbinary or gender nonconforming students sought to attend college, while 66% expected to actually do so.

 

Only 6% of college transfer applicants who used the Common App in the last four years have lived in zip codes with the lowest median household income.

That’s according to data released May 8 by the Common App, the online portal enabling students to use a single form to apply to hundreds of institutions. It also found public flagship institutions and large, private nonprofit colleges were the most popular destinations for transfer applicants.

The number of transfer applications has ticked up since the platform started offering them in the 2018-19 academic year. Common App saw 216,590 transfer applications that year, rising 17.2% to 253,815 in 2021-22, the most recent year available.

Researching application behavior among college transfers is notoriously difficult, in part because federal sources of information — like the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, or IPEDS — don't collect applicant data on students who aren’t enrolling for the first time.

Colleges’ Common Data sets contain some of this information, but institutions must publish it voluntarily. These are summaries of enrollment, application and retention numbers, as well as the factors colleges consider during admissions.

Thus, the Common App report summarizing transfer findings provides a glimpse into trends that aren’t completely understood.

The organization said in the report that it is “somewhat concerning” wealthier students are primarily the ones taking advantage of the transfer process. Transfer processes “should reflect educational mobility for all students, especially for historically excluded groups,” the report states.

In the 2021-22 year, nearly 70% of the Common App’s member colleges that use it for first-year students also relied on it for transfer applicants.

Colleges with admit rates under 25% received the largest share of transfer applications annually for the last four years. For 2021-22, 3 in 10 transfer applications went to institutions with admit rates under 25%, while the smallest share, 16%, went to colleges with admit rates between 25% and 50%. 

The organization noted in its report that “the tendency to apply to large, selective institutions is not a new phenomenon for Common App applicants, transfer or first-year.”

About one-fourth of applicants year to year were from underrepresented minority groups, which Common App considers to be students who are Black, Latino, Native American, Alaska Native and Pacific Islander. 

More than half of applicants every year were from zip codes with the highest median household income, the organization found.

More than 2 in 5 college students said they considered stopping out of their academic programs within a six-month period, according to a survey released May 3 from the Lumina Foundation and Gallup. 

The organizations polled more than 6,000 students seeking a credential, as well as thousands of adults who either stopped out of college or never enrolled in the first place. Not only did 41% of students mull stopping out, but also those shares were higher for Black and Hispanic students — 43% and 52%, respectively.

More than half of students who considered stopping out attributed their thinking to emotional stress. A little under half reported they were considering stopping due to personal mental health reasons, and just under 30% said it was because of college costs.

College enrollment has been under pressure for years, as some institutions grapple with fewer high school graduates and students opting to go directly into the workforce. The pandemic ratcheted up those difficulties, challenging recruitment and stressing colleges’ bottom lines. 

The higher education world is just now seeing hints of recovery. Undergraduate enrollment is still on the decline, but it only fell 0.6% from fall 2022 year over year, according to National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data. That’s the smallest decrease since the coronavirus began to spread.

The Gallup and Lumina Foundation research sheds light on the stressors that are forcing some students out and keeping others from enrolling. 

Enrolled students cited financial aid as a top reason for staying in college.

Just under 60% of both associate and bachelor’s degree students said this aid was very important. This is a larger share than in 2021, when half of those pursuing associate degrees and 52% of those enrolled in bachelor’s degree programs said financial aid was very important.

In the most recent survey, 52% of both groups of students said the value of their future credentials was very important.

Among students who aren’t enrolled in college, a little less than half reported that they’d consider doing so in the past two years. Of that group, 61% of students who had stopped out said they had considered reenrolling in that timeframe, while 36% of those who had never attended college said they thought it over.

Nearly 60% of Black adults and 53% of Hispanic adults said they had considered enrolling. That’s an increase from 51% of Black adults and 44% Hispanic adults in 2021.

Unenrolled students tended to prefer associate degree and short-term programs over bachelor’s degrees. Of the adults who thought about reenrolling in the last two years, 40% considered pursuing an associate degree and another 40% said they wanted a certificate. That’s compared to 27% who considered a bachelor’s degree and another 27% who considered an industry certification.

Nearly 300 U.S. and foreign colleges have told the National Association for College Admission Counseling that they have open seats for fall 2023.

The figure comes from the admission organization’s annual Colleges Openings Update, published May 2, which also documents the availability of housing and financial aid for first-year and transfer students.

The list is a way for NACAC to flag for students and families which institutions are accepting applications past May 1, the historic deadline by which accepted students make their picks. NACAC plans to keep the database updated and on its website through the end of July.

NACAC has released the listing for 36 years. It includes colleges that maintain rolling admissions throughout the year. And often, colleges inform NACAC about open spots after it publishes the database, so it may still change for 2023. 

The admissions group said it would update the listing daily. As of May 2, it listed 293 colleges.

The list is also part of NACAC’s goal to improve college access and provide exposure for institutions that students might not have considered.

“For students still searching for the right institution for them, it’s important to know most colleges in the U.S. offer admission to a majority of applicants,” Melissa Clinedinst, NACAC director of research and grants,” said in a statement. On average, four-year nonprofit colleges accept 73% of first-year applicants, Clinedinst said.

Over the past couple of years, NACAC has published the list earlier than May, citing high demand for the information. When it initially released last year’s list, more than 200 colleges indicated they had open spots, housing and aid. 

In 2021, more than 530 colleges reported open seats, though not even 200 were listed when the association first published it that year. This was a decline from 2020, when more than 700 colleges were listed in early May, reflecting enrollment stress spurred by the coronavirus pandemic.

Grand Canyon Education, an educational services company, reported in early May that its largest client, Grand Canyon University, saw online enrollment tick up after experiencing heavy declines throughout last year. 

The university’s online enrollment grew to 86,065 students by the end of March, up 1.6% from the same time last year. Total enrollment at Grand Canyon University, a private Christian institution in Arizona, increased 2.5% year over year to 108,633, partly due to strong growth in on-campus students. 

Grand Canyon University’s enrollment growth helped boost GCE’s bottom line, which saw revenue increase to $250.1 million in fiscal 2023’s first quarter, up 2.5% compared to the same period last year. Grand Canyon University gives around 60% of its tuition and fee revenue to GCE in return for services like marketing and counseling. 

Brian Mueller, who serves as both the CEO of GCE and the president of Grand Canyon University, attributed the enrollment increase to several recent initiatives. They include rolling out new academic programs, as well as working with companies in the healthcare, financial services and technology sectors to train their employees. 

New online enrollment growth is expected to continue in the second quarter, Mueller said during a call with analysts on May 3. GCE also projected that it would bring in up to $965.1 million in revenue in fiscal 2023, which would be a significant increase over the $911.3 million in revenue the year before. 

Mueller echoed comments he made earlier in the year defending GCE’s business model. The company heavily relies on tuition-share agreements, which guarantee that it will earn a portion of its clients' revenue in return for providing a variety of educational services, including marketing and recruitment. 

The U.S. Department of Education announced earlier this year that it is reviewing 2011 guidance allowing companies like GCE to strike revenue share agreements with colleges for recruitment and other services. Lawmakers have increasingly raised concerns that these deals push companies to aggressively recruit students to boost their bottom lines. 

“Critics point to the revenue-share model as bad for universities,” Mueller said on Tuesday's call. “The past two years have proven them wrong, and we expect in the next year, this will become even more apparent.” 

Mueller argued that GCE takes on most of the financial risk for its clients, especially during inflationary periods or when demand for higher education declines. 

“Our expertise, technologies and processes have allowed our university partners to continue to benefit during these challenging times,” Mueller said.

Students whose colleges closed were less likely to reenroll or to earn any credential afterwards than students whose institutions did not, according to a new report from the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association.

The April 26 report, produced with the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, also found that if these students did return to college, they took longer to complete a credential and were more likely to pursue a shorter-term credential than the one they initially sought.

To boost credential attainment, college and state officials should simplify transfer and teach-out options for students and provide additional support, like advising and tutoring, to those who reenroll, the report said.

Closures have plagued higher education in the past decade, especially as regulation of for-profit institutions stepped up in the 2010s, according to SHEEO. While colleges weathered the pandemic better than expected thanks in part to federal COVID-19 relief funds, the sector is once again bracing itself amid rising costs and the well running dry from that one-time funding, the report said.

The latest SHEEO data once again indicates that closures have negative ripple effects on student outcomes. The new report is the second in a series, the first of which found a majority of students at shuttered institutions experienced sudden closures, rather than ones planned in advance. And fewer than half of those students went on to reenroll elsewhere, the earlier report found.

Both studies looked at over 143,000 students who had attended one of 467 shuttered colleges between July 2004 to June 2020. The newest research compared their academic outcomes to almost 1.3 million students at 467 similar-but-still-open institutions. 

“The research from this report shows that when schools close, the impacts are potentially life-altering, with most students choosing not to reenroll right away and half as likely to earn a credential than students who did not experience a closure,” Rob Anderson, SHEEO president, said in a statement.

Students who previously enrolled at a now-closed college were half as likely to complete a credential as students who did not. And students of color and certificate-seeking students saw worse outcomes after a college closure, while also being at a higher risk of experiencing one, the report said.

Students of color with no prior credential were 19.5% to 28.2% less likely than White students to earn a credential after a college closure. Asian students, the exception, were 29.7% more likely than White students to do so.

And students who were working toward a certificate when their college closed were 29.8% less likely to be enrolled later than were those who had been pursuing associate degrees, and 161.6% less likely than those in bachelor’s degrees programs, the report said.

Across the board, students were unlikely to seamlessly transfer to a new college after a closure. They were 71.3% less likely to be enrolled after one month, compared to students that didn't experience a closure. Even after four months, they were still 63.3% less likely to be attending a new college.

SHEEO recommends state higher education agencies ensure the offices authorizing transfer agreements are well-resourced and can properly serve students following a college closure. The agencies should also be able to assure the quality of institutions likely to receive affected transfer students – vis-a-vis their financial stability and a strong accreditation history, for example — to prevent a cycle of closures and bad student outcomes.

Colleges and states are missing out on opportunities to reengage stopped-out students even as that population is growing, according to a report released April 25 by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

The number of former students with some college credit but no degree increased to 40.4 million between July 2020 and July 2021. That's up 3.6% from 39 million the previous year.

But despite the increase in numbers, fewer "some college, no credential" students reenrolled in college, persevered past their first year of reenrollment, or completed a credential in the 2021-2022 academic year over the previous year.

Amid a rapidly approaching enrollment cliff for traditional students, colleges are increasingly looking to engage those who have stopped out as a way to bolster their student bodies.

But the disconnect between the rising number of stopped out students and those returning to higher education shows there's room for improvement, according to the clearinghouse.

The report identified two groups of "some college, no credential" students that should be of interest to states and institutions considering reenrollment potential, Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said Monday.

Students who stopped out since May 2022 and "potential completers" — those who enrolled in college full time for at least two years in the last decade — held the most promise for reenrollment and completion outcomes, the report said. 

Only 2.1% of "some college, no credential" students across the board reenrolled in 2021. But during the same time period, 9.4% of recently stopped-out students reenrolled, as did 6.1% of potential completers.

​​Potential completers also saw improved outcomes when broken down by race, the report found.

Just 22.8% of Black “some college, no credential” students earned a bachelor’s degree within one year of re-enrolling, which was below the national average of 25.7%. But among Black potential completers, 38.4% earned a bachelor’s in the same time period — just a hair shy of the national average of 38.8%.

Among students who reenrolled, 38.8% returned to the college they originally attended, the report said. But community colleges were the most popular type of institution overall for reenrollment, including for students switching their type of institution. 

Some 44.4% of reenrolling students who previously attended a public four-year college elected to attend a community college upon returning, the report said. Likewise, 37.5% of former students at four-year for-profit institutions also opted for community college when they returned.

"The No. 1 destination is a community college, regardless of where they stopped out," Shapiro said on a call with reporters Monday.

Once reenrolled, formerly stopped-out students behave differently from other nontraditional students, according to Mikyung Ryu, director of research publications at the center.

"As long as they come back and reenroll, they are more likely to stay put without transferring out to another institution," Ryu said on April 24. "Not changing institutions also means a shorter time to completion and a lower likelihood to lose their credits in a transfer."

A majority of "some college, no credential” students, 66.7%, were under the age of 35 when they left higher ed. Recent stop-outs and potential completers skewed younger. 

Over half of potential completers, 55.6%, were 20 to 24 years old when they last enrolled, and 24.6% of recent stop-outs were under 20 years old.

The University of Arizona’s undergraduate enrollment has increased in recent years, bucking the declines experienced by many colleges throughout the U.S. For the Tucson region, the university’s home, that upward trend is key. 

Higher education institutions are “the most important” element to the economic life of Arizona cities and towns, said Michael Guymon, president and CEO of the Tucson Metro Chamber. 

“The University of Arizona is the greatest economic asset that we have in the region,” he said. 

The area also hosts Arizona State University facilities, Pima Community College and various trade schools. Those institutions are “extremely important for us to provide much-needed postsecondary education to develop the skills needed for companies to hire the right people and ultimately to succeed,” Guymon said.

Enrollment at colleges and universities throughout the U.S. has dropped significantly in recent years, a trend worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. And enrollment could continue to drop 5% to 10% a year in the near future, according to Clive Belfield, a professor of education and labor economics at Queens College, part of the City University of New York. 

The U.S. is experiencing a declining college-aged population, while rising college costs, student loan debt and a reasonably attractive labor market have prompted some prospective students to avoid higher ed, Belfield said. 

College leaders have also grappled with stagnant state funding and pressures to lower tuition, along with stagnant state funding. As a result, since 2016, more than 90 colleges and universities in 34 states have announced or finalized mergers or closures.

These college closures and the declining enrollment can have major ramifications for cities and towns that rely on the vast economic benefits that higher education provides.

Colleges are “primary economic engines” and a major part of the rural economy, said Matthew Wagner, chief program officer at Main Street America, a group that aims to improve the economic viability of downtowns. 

A vibrant student enrollment is intrinsically linked to the success of businesses in college towns, said Wagner. 

Educational institutions bring in new talent that can fill open positions, and hire local residents, he said. Money is spent locally by students and staff, visiting parents and grandparents and those attending campus sporting events. So does college backend operations that require contracting with local businesses, including restaurants, retail, construction, and various trade and professional services, he said.

The economic stakes in Arizona

Whether enrollment at Arizona colleges and universities grows or declines in future years is a billion-dollar question for the state. A 20% increase in enrollment at Arizona institutions would generate over $5 billion in social gains per cohort, a recent report from Helios Education Foundation and Education Forward Arizona found. The report analyzed a single cohort of nearly 69,000 high school graduates from the class of 2022.  Meanwhile, a 10% increase in college completion rates would generate $1.3 billion per cohort, the report stated.

In Tucson, Pima Community College’s enrollment declined at the onset of the pandemic, the college’s website said, especially among students who are racial minorities. The college reported that Pima County had either the lowest or second-lowest percentage of high school graduates by county in the state since 2015.

At the University of Arizona, recent enrollment growth has largely stemmed from out-of-state students, while its share of in-state students has decreased, news site Tucson.com reported. 

That trend is coupled with the region’s aging population. Tucson’s population of 16- to 24-year-olds is smaller than the generation before it, Guymon said, making it difficult for companies to fill job vacancies. 

“We aren’t seeing the types of numbers we need to fill all of the positions that exist in our region in the short and long term,” said Guymon. 

The University of Arizona is neck and neck with Raytheon Technologies for the title of largest employer in Tucson, Guymon said. But for the Tucson business region, the university’s most crucial function is its ability to produce talent, he said. 

If fewer students attend the university, employers may no longer see Tucson as a place to grow and could look elsewhere to expand, said Guymon. 

The first thing companies looking to relocate or expand do is evaluate whether the city or town has “individuals with the right kind of skills that I can employ today,” Guymon said. If student enrollment were to decline, “they might have second thoughts about expanding here.”

The decline in student enrollment throughout the U.S. has been a slow wave, said Belfield, who co-authored the Helios-Education Forward Arizona report. While first-year student enrollment is low, fourth-year student enrollment has remained steady, he said. As a result, the economic impact fueled by the enrollment decline will also be slow, he said.

Major metro areas that are magnates for college students, such as Boston, Washington, D.C.,  and Chicago, are not going to be impacted the same as college towns, Belfield said. Arizona’s large public universities like the University of Arizona are also “not going to be in a lot of trouble,” he said. 

Online learning is also changing the geographic economics.

“It’s going to take a few years before the wave goes through the college town and really starts closing down amenities," Belfield asked. “What do you need a campus eatery and a whole downtown for if students are all online?”

He expects spending by students to eventually decrease in small college towns, affecting restaurants, pubs and entertainment. The cost of renting a home will also likely drop, he said. 
 

Forming partnerships now

Tucson business leaders are proactively trying to keep University of Arizona students in the region after graduation so they can fill the large number of job vacancies. 

The Tucson Metro Chamber, for instance, is working on bringing employers into college classrooms and special events to let students know there are opportunities in the city after graduation, said Guymon. “Sometimes the perception from their standpoint is there aren’t very many opportunities in Tucson,” he said. 

Local business and economic development leaders have also launched a campaign aiming to attract new companies and talent to the region, he said. 

In small college towns, community and downtown-minded groups need to be proactive and not wait for their local college to present visible signs of sluggishness. 

“We need to be engaged right now with our local college leaders,” said Wagner. During those conversations, college leaders need to inform those local leaders about their direction, their strategy, and how the community can best support them. 

Legislation could also help some colleges and their local communities. 

A bipartisan bill in Georgia would create “prosperity planning districts” around historically Black colleges and universities. The measure aims to use an HBCU's resources to improve the economic and workforce prospects of the surrounding community, such as building new housing on their land, which in return, could generate additional money for the college. 

Cities and towns could also support local colleges by creating more downtown housing through creative public-private financing, said Wagner. 

And they could work on improving the quality of life for students attending those institutions: providing attractive trails, recreational opportunities, swimming pools, funky local restaurants, and cafes where students can hang out and do schoolwork. Communities can also create opportunities that allow entrepreneurs to mix with students and staff.

“It’s those kinds of efforts that also make a big difference in the ability to attract students and retain enrollment,” Wagner said.

Ricardo Azziz has held numerous executive positions in higher education and led the merger that resulted in Georgia Regents University, now Augusta University. He is principal at Strategic Partnerships in Higher Education Consulting Group.

He writes the regular Merger Watch opinion series on corporate restructuring in higher education.

We all know that enrollments are dropping. However, considering the many services and webinars that purport to help improve student numbers, it seems that few recognize that it’s not the enrollment of an individual college that is tumbling— it’s the enrollment of the entire sector.

But where are the students that everybody wants coming from? Or better said … what colleges are you going to cannibalize students from? 

Let’s look at the facts.

Higher education in the United States has been on a growth path since the creation of the GI Bill and the country's post-World War II industrial dominance and growing economic prosperity. Between 1947 and 2011, enrollment in institutions of higher education grew eight-fold. By 2021, over 60% of the U.S. population age 25 and older had attended an institution of higher education, although not all have attained a college degree. 

However, critically, higher education in the U.S. has been built for a growing population. Public education systems created vast networks of campuses to serve the far reaches of their states. And private colleges grew their enrollments and their facilities by leveraging government money and the seeming willingness of the American public to pay whatever was asked, eventually leading to exponentially rising tuition and attendance fees. 

But the baby boomer era is over. And so is the party. The nation's population growth rate dropped from 1.7% in 1961 to 0.1% in 2021. Consequently, the number of high school graduates — the largest potential college student population — has plateaued and is expected to begin to decline after 2025. 

At the same time, there are many other forces at work decreasing college attendance. For example, the participation of recent high school grads in college dropped by almost 5% from 2010 to 2020. And the number of students completing college within six years has stalled at about 60% on average, higher for four-year private nonprofits and lower for four-year for-profit colleges. The remaining 40% of students who attend college leave without a degree or certificate — now numbering nearly 40 million disappointed students. And increasingly, there are myriad pressures to reduce the need for, or the value of, a college degree. 

Consequently, student enrollment at colleges nationwide has fallen by more than 10% since 2012, reflecting a loss of more than 2 million students. And since the 100 or so largest institutions have gained more than 750,000 students during that period, the actual loss of students being faced by colleges with less than 30,000 students is 2.5 million. 

To put this in perspective, we should remember that three-quarters of U.S. colleges and universities. have an average enrollment of 1,500 students – which means the loss of 2.5 million students equals the total enrollment of about 1,700 of these colleges, or about 60% of all colleges with enrollment of less than 5,000 students.

While institutions can hope that college enrollments increase, they need to face the facts — the number of students attending college, at least in the immediate future, will continue to drop, and there is no easy solution in sight. The big institutions are getting bigger, and the small ones are getting smaller. 

And the only effective way to increase enrollment in the short term is to cannibalize students from other institutions — while other colleges try to do the same thing to your student market. It's a costly and often wasteful combat but one that institutions — and enrollment officers — understand needs to be pursued. 

One effective growth and/or survival tactic to consider in this environment are college and university mergers and consolidations. While they may not address the immediate enrollment cliff – if done well, they do yield larger institutions that are better able to recruit and retain students. And better able to cannibalize students from their peers…